The federal government today released its first National Climate Risk Assessment and National Adaptation Plan, warning impacts from natural catastrophes will worsen as access to insurance falls.

The government says “no Australian community will be immune from climate risks that will be cascading, compounding and concurrent”, and it will step up efforts to cut carbon emissions.

“Today the National Climate Risk Assessment is clear: while we can no longer avoid climate impacts, every action we take today towards our goal of net zero by 2050 will help avoid the worst impacts on Australian communities and businesses,” it says.

The assessment finds that while climate hazards will worsen under “all plausible futures”, the difference between 2 degrees and 3 degrees of global warming is significant. 

Floods, fires and cyclones are expected to become more frequent and severe, sea level rise could put 1.5 million more people at risk by 2050, and heatwaves will lead to more deaths, especially in north Australia. 

“These changes will notably increase insurance costs, leading to more underinsured or uninsured properties,” the report says.

The assessment mentions the effect the cyclone reinsurance pool has had in reducing premiums, and suggests further government intervention is possible.

“In response to growing concerns about insurance accessibility and affordability, new approaches to ensure equitable access to affordable insurance cover for high-risk properties may need to be considered.”

The National Adaptation Plan sets out how the government will respond to risks identified in the assessment.

The plan says support for the cyclone pool will continue and the government will build on work with the Hazards Insurance Partnership to improve the use of data collected by the government.  

“This could include data on the climate risks for asset locations and relevant characteristics, and current and planned resilience investments.”

The plan describes the Disaster Ready Fund, which provides up to $1 billion for mitigation projects over five years, as the government’s “flagship initiative for disaster resilience and risk reduction”.

It also addresses the issue of displacement following natural catastrophes and says there is “a specific policy need around the planned relocation of whole communities”.

The government says it will work with states, territories and local government to create an “action agenda” based on the plan’s findings by the end of next year.

“This could be informed by economic and actuarial analysis to identify adaptation policy interventions with the highest economic benefit, designed to complement existing resilience initiatives.”

See the National Climate Risk Assessment here, and the National Adaptation Plan here.

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