IAG warns it is “increasingly probable” global warming will exceed 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, bringing more extreme natural hazards to Australia.

The insurer, in partnership with the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research, points to increased tropical cyclone risk in southwest WA, southeast Queensland and northern NSW, with storms maintaining intensity further inland.

While the frequency of storms may decline or remain stable, the combination of heavier rainfall and rising sea levels is expected to bring more severe flash flooding, and wind will be stronger.

Severe convective storms are expected to become more frequent across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, and atmospheric conditions will become more favourable for hailstorms. Increased storm frequency and severity across central Australia and parts of WA is also flagged.  

IAG adds floods, bushfires and heatwaves are expected to become more frequent, intense and challenging to manage.  

The report, citing more than 360 scientific publications, paints a grim picture of efforts to combat global warming, with 2024 the first year global temperatures topped the 1.5-degree target. It was also a year of record carbon dioxide emissions growth.  

In Australia, land temperatures increased by 1.6 degrees from the pre-industrial period to 2020.  

“It is extremely unlikely that global greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced enough in the next two decades to follow the 1.5-degree trajectory,” IAG says.

“It is increasingly probable that warming will exceed 2 degrees over pre-industrial levels, with 3 degrees or higher an increasing possibility before the end of this century.”  

The insurer makes planning recommendations including resilient land use planning, community adaptation planning and further investment in relocation and buyback schemes.  

IAG MD and CEO Nick Hawkins says the report works “to inform decision-making and engagement with government, industry and communities as we seek to drive greater awareness and collaboration.

“The report reinforces the need for broad-scale collaboration and urgent implementation of regional, national and global mitigation and adaptation plans to help manage the transition and physical, psychological and economic risks.”

See the full Severe Weather in a Changing Climate report here.