Australia’s so-far unusually wet El Nino year may still give way to more typical hot, dry conditions, with a potential 50% increase in bushfire risk as the climate pattern strengthens, Moody’s warns.

The ratings agency says it is the wettest El Nino year on record, and the usual shift in Australian weather patterns has not occurred.

But a rapid swing from wet to dry conditions could increase the potential for major bushfires, producing abundant vegetation growth and increasing fuel loads.

Australia’s National Emergency Management Agency is warning people to prepare for a drier, hotter summer.

Moody’s modelling shows El Nino can increase Australian bushfire risk by more than 50% compared with non-El Nino years. However, it reduces tropical cyclone risk, as the storm systems are steered away from the country.

The agency says catastrophe models need to account for interactions between bushfire, cyclone, flood and wind risk, rather than assessing each peril in isolation. A single simulation year can contain an El Nino event that intensifies bushfire risk while reducing cyclone, flood, wind and storm surge threats.

Moody’s notes the influence of El Nino is becoming harder to predict as the climate warms.

Research suggests warmer conditions may affect the frequency, intensity or impact of future El Ninos, and the combination of climate change and El Nino can make regional temperature and rainfall outcomes more uncertain.

The current El Nino is expected to peak in coming months.