Swiss Re analysis shows a repeat of the Great Miami Hurricane could cause $US200 billion ($280 billion) in insured losses if the Category 4 storm was to hit the area today. 

The hurricane struck 100 years ago and at that time about 100,000 residents lived in the South Florida area. Total economic damage in 1926 prices was estimated at $US105 million ($147 million) including insured losses of $US16.5 million ($23.15 million). 

Swiss Re says its analysis shows how a century of population and property growth has transformed the potential impact of a hurricane striking Miami-Dade County. 

Today the county is home to 2.8 million residents while the City of Miami has close to half a million people. 

“The result is a fundamentally different risk landscape from that of 1926,” Swiss Re said. 

“High-value assets are located in areas exposed to both strong wind and storm surge, increasing the potential for exceptionally large losses when a major hurricane strikes.” 

Swiss Re says the Great Miami Hurricane was an early warning of how rapid urban development could create a major accumulation risk. 

“Where a hurricane makes landfall is critical,” the reinsurer said. 

Hurricane Andrew struck around 20 miles (32km) south of Miami as a Category 5 storm in 1992, largely sparing Miami’s much larger concentration of insured property. 

Swiss Re estimates that the same track today would cause close to $US100 billion ($140 billion) in insured losses while a Category 5 hurricane striking Miami or Tampa Bay could cause insured losses of $US300 billion ($421 billion) or more. 

“One hundred years after the Great Miami Hurricane, the question is not simply how powerful the next major hurricane will be, but what it will encounter when it reaches shore,” head of catastrophe perils Balz Grollimund said. 

“That lesson extends well beyond Florida: as populations and asset values increase in areas exposed to natural catastrophes, so does the potential for large insured losses.”