Export confidence is holding up despite the Middle East war but global economic growth will be lower and inflation higher than expected this year, the latest Allianz Trade Global Survey suggests.

About 75% of exporters expect growth this year but 60% are worried about supply chain disruption, according to the poll of 6000 companies in February and March.

More than half are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers, or adjusting delivery schedules in response to the war.

Respondents report tightening trade finance conditions, with 40% worried about not being paid. The most exposed sectors are pharmaceuticals, construction, computers and telecoms.

Allianz has forecast GDP growth of 2.6% this year and global inflation of 4.3%.

A year on from the introduction of higher US tariffs, 80% of respondents have adjusted their trade and supply chain routes, building inventory and looking to diversify markets.