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European firms absorbing risk, Allianz Trade says

Global working capital requirements have reached the highest level since 2008, with a growing divergence between North American and European strategies, an Allianz trade credit insurance report shows.

Working capital requirements rose by two days to 78 last year, boosted by a four-day surge for western Europe.

European companies, with higher inventories and lower days payable outstanding, “have been bankrolling their trade partners” by extending payment and absorbing risk, Allianz Trade lead analyst for insolvency research Maxime Lemerle said.

Between the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this one, companies effectively provided an additional €11 billion ($19.6 billion) in corporate lending, almost matching banks’ monthly new credit flows since the start of the year, he says.

Asia-Pacific working capital requirements increased two days, while a decline in the US was driven by destocking.

Allianz says with record-high uncertainty and trade tensions set to continue, global economic growth will remain at its lowest level since 2008, excluding recession episodes.

Working capital requirements could be pushed up significantly in an adverse scenario.

Head of macroeconomic research Ana Boata says if the US “Liberation Day” tariffs are fully implemented, companies would need to finance an extra €8.5 billion ($15.2 billion) in Europe and $US15.5 billion ($24 billion) in the US, equivalent to three days of turnover for both regions.