Spring bushfire outlook reveals risk hotspots across nation
Victoria’s Gippsland region, eastern Tasmania and parts of NSW are among the areas facing an increased bushfire risk this spring.
The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) seasonal outlook also identifies elevated risks across parts of WA and much of the NT.
“This outlook highlights a heightened risk of fire across several parts of the country, driven by a combination of dry conditions in the east and increased fuel loads through parts of central and northern Australia,” CEO Rob Webb said today.
The areas with increased risk include a region extending from west of Bairnsdale in Victoria to north of Bega in southern NSW; coastal areas southwest of Geelong; northeast and eastern Tasmania; and a region from east of Dubbo in NSW and through Goondiwindi in Queensland.
The outlook follows the Bureau of Meteorology’s June declaration of an El Nino, which is typically associated with below-average rainfall in southern and eastern areas and above-average temperatures in most places.
Last week, the bureau said oceanic and atmospheric indices reflect values consistent with a strong El Nino.
Further intensification is likely during spring and the event is expected to persist into autumn.
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Models suggest a positive Indian Ocean Dipole – also a potential drying influence – will develop and persist into spring, although there is uncertainty around its timing and strength.
The AFAC seasonal outlook draws on analysis by fire specialists across Australia, and climate prediction and fire weather experts from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Mr Webb says the variety of risk factors across different regions reinforces the need for communities to understand local conditions and prepare early.
“While some areas are facing an elevated risk of fire this spring, bushfires can still occur in regions with a normal seasonal outlook,” he said.
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