AUB Group says premium rates in Australian broking rose 5%-7% in the first quarter and it has “confidently” reaffirmed its earnings guidance.

In New Zealand, premium rates increased 3.5%-5%.  

The update contrasts with one from Steadfast, which recently revised its premium rate growth forecast to 1%-2% for the year to June 30, down from 3%-5%.

“While we note the commentary from industry peers about premium rates during Q1, we have not observed these trends at AUB Group,” CEO Mike Emmett told shareholders at today’s annual meeting.

“With four months of trading under our belts, our full-year forecast remains within our expected profit range, and we are confident to reaffirm our guidance.”

AUB expects underlying net profit of $215-$227 million in fiscal 2026, representing earnings growth of 7%-13%.

“We have a positive outlook and expect to deliver another year of record results ... Growth is predominantly in our hands and far less subject to the macro environment and the premium rates cycle speculated about by various commentators,” Mr Emmett said.

Average first-quarter income per client in Australia rose 8.4% compared with a year earlier; it was up by “a more muted” 0.9% in New Zealand.  

AUB chair Peter Harmer says due diligence and discussions “are ongoing” after a takeover offer from Swedish private equity firm EQT and CVC Asia-Pacific. An exclusivity period ends on December 4.

The offer is for $45 cash per share. The stock closed on Wednesday at $38.73.

“Your board remains committed to maximising value for AUB shareholders. We will provide further updates to the market as appropriate,” Mr Harmer said.

AUB Group manages 1.8 million policies with a team of nearly 6000, placing about $11 billion in gross written premium.