Australia is facing a hotter spring and high bushfire potential in several regions as an unusually strong El Niño takes hold – but insurers should not assume the event will produce a nationwide drought or lower catastrophe losses, according to UK insurtech BirdsEyeView.

The European Space Agency-backed natural catastrophe modelling specialist says the El Niño is already among the most unusual events on record.

BirdsEyeView says the event was established unusually early and could be record-setting on several measures. However, it warns that the strength of the Pacific warming is a poor guide to Australian rainfall outcomes over summer.

The company’s Australian outlook, based on Bureau of Meteorology, NOAA, World Meteorological Organization and other forecasting guidance, expects hotter-than-average conditions across much of Australia during spring, with drier conditions in parts of the south and east and wetter conditions in much of WA.

The more significant uncertainty comes in summer, when the company says historical experience shows that the strength of an El Niño does not reliably determine Australian rainfall.

The strong 1997-98 El Niño produced rainfall deficits mainly around coastal southeast Australia and Tasmania, while the weaker 2002-03 event was associated with widespread drought.

BirdsEyeView cautions insurers against assuming that fewer tropical cyclones will necessarily translate into lower losses.

"It is tempting to read a record Pacific index as a record season in Australia, and the history does not support that," lead weather and climate scientist Kieran Bajpai said.

"For insurers, fewer cyclones is not the same as lower losses. A single Queensland landfall can decide the year, and warm seas will keep feeding intense storms and east coast lows even if the summer is drier overall.”

The company says unusually warm surrounding seas could continue to fuel intense thunderstorms, east coast lows and heavy cyclone rainfall even if overall summer rainfall is below average.

“Heat is the more reliable summer signal,” BirdsEyeView says, because El Niño, warm surrounding seas and long-term warming are all pushing temperatures higher.