Hurricane losses in the US could increase by more than 50% under 2 degrees of global warming, according to a study from (re)insurer MS Amlin.  

The likelihood of category 4 and 5 storms hitting the eastern seaboard will rise under the scenario, it says in a peer-review report.

Average annual losses in New York could grow 64%, while New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Massachusetts face 70% increases.  

Florida, which has the highest average annual losses, is projected to record a 44% rise and the largest absolute increase.  

A repeat of the storms that occurred in 2022, causing $US62 billion ($95.02 billion) of insured losses, could cost up to $US90 billion ($137.93 billion) in the warmer scenario, the report says.

MS Amlin catastrophe research head Sam Phibbs, who co-authored the paper, says the findings may be an underestimation, noting they do not fully account for factors related to sea level rise, urban growth and more intense rainfall.

“Our research shows that major storms could increasingly impact cities that have historically seen few hurricanes,” he said.

“Warmer oceans will allow hurricanes to maintain their intensity further north and will push significant new risk into areas less prepared to absorb it.”  

MS Amlin CEO Andrew Carrie warns the gap between risk and readiness is widening.  

“Climate-related losses are rising, yet pricing and coverage terms are failing to keep pace,” he said.

“Insurers can act as climate shock absorbers for society, but only if risks are priced and structured in line with today’s reality.”  

Recent forecasts predict at least eight hurricanes will form this Atlantic hurricane season.  

See the report, published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience, here.