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European fires point to changing risk

Europe’s summer wildfires stunned the continent, but Howden Re says they are not a market-changing loss event.

The blazes are a useful signal that risk is evolving, and historical loss experience will not show where the next concentrations of exposure develop, according to a risk analysis by the broker.

Head of international catastrophe analytics Tim Edwards says Europe is warming faster than many other regions and experiencing longer periods of extreme heat and drought.

The continent accounted for 5% of the €173 billion ($279 billion) in global wildfire losses from 2016 to last year.

Economic losses this year – from classes covered by private markets and state schemes – are expected to be about €500 million ($809 million), Mr Edwards says.

“While there has undeniably been a tragic impact, the latest European wildfire events are not yet on the same scale in terms of societal impact as wildfires in other parts of the world or other catastrophe perils in Europe,” he added.

Last year, Spanish wildfires burnt 400,000 hectares but led to only about 900 claims totalling €23 million ($37 million).

Europe’s July hail event will have caused greater damage but received a fraction of the media coverage, Mr Edwards notes.