Drop in cat losses ‘obscures climate risk patterns’
An above-average number of catastrophe events occurred in the first half of this year, but global losses were down on previous years, an Aon report shows.
The broker’s H1 Global Catastrophe Recap estimates economic losses totalled $US111 billion ($158.81 billion) – 25% below the 21st-century average and the lowest first-half total since 2018.
However, the half produced 13 billion-dollar insured loss events – above the long-term average of 10 – and 23 billion-dollar economic loss events, matching the historical average.
“Headline global loss figures can obscure where risk is actually accumulating,” Aon head of catastrophe insight Michal Lorinc said.
“The first half of 2026 showed how regional events can have significant financial, operational and human consequences even when global loss totals appear moderate.”
This was illustrated by tornado activity in the US Midwest, where both Illinois and Indiana set new tornado count records, Aon says.
However, total insured losses from US convective storms were $US27 billion ($38.63 billion) – below the more than $US40 billion ($57.23 billion) recorded during the first halves of 2023, 2024 and 2025.
Among the costliest H1 events was the earthquakes in Venezuela, which generated preliminary economic losses estimated at $US20 billion-$US30 billion ($28.61 billion-($42.92 billion). Portugal experienced its costliest windstorm on record, with economic losses of about $US4.4 billion ($6.3 billion).
The report also highlights climate risks that may not be fully reflected in insured loss figures.
European heatwaves led to 17 countries recording their hottest June temperatures, exceeding 40 degrees across large parts of the continent.
The event contributed to more than 1000 deaths across France, the UK, Spain and Belgium.
Global head of climate risk advisory Liz Henderson says historical catastrophe experience is becoming a less reliable guide to future risk.
“Events like this year’s European heatwaves demonstrate how emerging vulnerabilities can create new areas of risk,” she said.