AI and big data have overtaken climate change as the leading emerging risk, according to an Axa poll of financial services experts, reflecting growing concern at the pace of technological change and the preparedness of governments to manage it.

The insurer’s 2026 Future Risks Report, produced in partnership with Ipsos, surveyed 4345 experts in 62 countries and regions – comprising Axa and other financial services professionals. It also questioned 24,000 members of the public in 19 countries.

Only in Europe do global instability and climate change still top the experts’ risks list, with AI and big data third.

For the public, climate remains the number one risk, with 76% saying they feel vulnerable to it in their daily lives.

The study also focuses on intergenerational dynamics: 59% of the public report experiencing tensions related to age differences; 71% believe raising children is more challenging today than for previous generations; and 46% believe younger generations will have a lower quality of life than their own.

Axa describes a “world of polycrisis, where risks mutually reinforce each other and transform our societies”.

The top 10 risks among experts are:

1. Artificial intelligence and big data

AI and big data are up from fourth place in 2025 to take top spot for the first time in the report’s 13-year history. The speed of development, uncertainty about its consequences and limited confidence in government preparedness are key issues. Among experts who rank AI as a leading risk, 54% consider it a rapidly emerging threat, while just 9% believe authorities are well prepared to address it; in Europe, the latter figure is 3%. Potential concerns include misuse, privacy breaches, unreliable outputs, employment disruption and the consequences of increasingly autonomous systems.

2. Climate change

Implications include more severe weather, damage to property and infrastructure, disruption to businesses and pressure on insurance affordability and availability. The report also points to a preparedness gap: only 13% of experts consider public authorities well prepared for climate-related risks.

3. Geopolitical instability

Concerns remain high, especially in Europe, where experts rate it the top risk. Fears over threats to food and energy supplies dominate, with 85% of experts and 81% of the public believing there is a danger their country will be affected. Just 15% of experts and 29% of the public are confident authorities are well prepared to navigate geopolitical risks.

4. Cybersecurity

The report highlights a shift from isolated attacks towards more systemic threats. Most experts (68%) and public respondents (71%) feel vulnerable to cyber risk in their daily lives. Experts are concerned about cyber warfare, and the public fear reputation and impersonation risk, with generative AI making fraud, identity theft and deepfakes more sophisticated and difficult to detect.

5. Energy risks

After dropping off for the past three years, energy risks have climbed back into the top five among experts and the top 10 for the public, 77% of whom say they experience concern in their daily lives. Rising prices are the key issue. Older generations are more concerned about energy risks, and believe authorities are unprepared for them.

6. Social tensions and social movements

Social tensions have climbed the rankings among the public, with the failure of institutions and declining levels of democracy noted. About 28% say their main concerns centre on increasing inequality and the cost-of-living crisis. Only 11% of experts think authorities are well-equipped in this area.

7. Social fragmentation

New to the experts’ top 10 this year, social fragmentation reflects concern about weakening social cohesion and growing division within communities. Polarisation, declining trust and differences between social groups are all cited, with 69% of experts and 63% of the public believing their country faces a deep or growing social divide.

8. Financial stability risks

The category – which has risen since last year’s report – includes financial crises, market disruptions, sovereign debt crises, banking instability and liquidity shocks. Systemic failure in financial markets is the main concern. Only 36% of the public think authorities are well equipped to deal with these issues, and 70% feel vulnerable.

9. Macroeconomic risks

This risk has fallen slightly on last year. Trade wars and customs tariffs are the main concern among experts, while unemployment is the biggest fear for the public.

10. Natural resources and biodiversity

This risk area has fallen from sixth among experts and seventh with the public. Axa believes this is due to the rising prominence of other risks rather than falling concern at overexploitation of natural resources – the top concern in this area.

See the report here.