Global heating impacts are overpowering natural climate drivers, leading Australia into a period of rapidly changing disaster risk, according to the Climate Council.

In a report titled Breakneck Speed: Summer of Climate Whiplash, the council says last summer featured historic heat and bushfires in Victoria, even as typically cooler and wetter La Nina conditions were in effect.

The state recorded its highest maximum temperature in January, while bushfires caused about $786 million in insured losses.

Victoria “flipped between extremes at an accelerating speed”, as some communities along the Great Ocean Road dealt with flash flooding just a week after facing fire warnings.

This “whiplash” pattern was seen in other states, with WA’s Eyre Highway experiencing heat- and flood-related closures within two days, while Alice Springs suffered flooding despite experiencing nearly twice the typical number of days above 40 degrees.

Some areas of Australia had less than 20% of their typical rainfall, while others received more than 400%.

One of the report’s authors, Monash University adjunct professor Andrew Watkins, says the findings show how “climate change is now firmly behind the steering wheel of Australia’s temperatures.

“The natural drivers we historically relied on are slipping behind climate change in the race to control our climate.

“Our hotter oceans and atmosphere mean more water evaporates into the sky than ever before.

“With more moisture in the atmosphere, storms produce more rain like the extreme rainfall and flash flooding in parts of Victoria this summer.” 

The council says insurers paid out $4.5 billion a year between 2020 and 2024, more than double the 30-year average, and premiums have risen 51% overall in five years.

“These costs will continue to balloon unless governments stop supporting coal, oil and gas pollution and speed up the shift to clean energy,” said former NSW fire commissioner Greg Mullin, who also contributed to the report.

See the report here.