Social fragmentation is compounding the world’s vulnerability to risk amid a “deepening sense of polycrisis”, an annual Axa survey finds. 

Climate change is considered the top risk for a fifth straight year, but with a narrowing gap to next-ranked geopolitical instability and cybersecurity. Artificial intelligence and big data, and social tensions are also among leading concerns. 

“Confidence is declining in the capacity of public authorities to handle the deepening global polycrisis, while the unprecedented pace at which technological risks are emerging makes risk management and decision-making increasingly complex,” Axa says. 

The Future Risks Report examines the perceptions of insurance experts, drawn from Axa and its professional networks, plus members of the general population worldwide. 

About 95% of experts and 93% of general respondents think crises have increased in recent years, while 59% of the general population believe people in their country share fewer common values. 

When asked about the main dividing factors, both experts and the general population are most likely to cite economic and social inequalities and political and ideological issues. 

Only 12% of experts who put climate change among their top risks believe authorities are well prepared to handle it, down 2 percentage points from last year to the lowest figure since the survey began. 

Follow-up questions show more respondents worry about “destruction of infrastructure and property as a result of national catastrophes” than “insufficient collective action to support the climate transition”. 

“These results demonstrate the paradox of climate concern: our societies tend to prioritise protection against immediate risks over the systemic changes needed to prevent those risks getting worse in the longer term, which leaves them feeling vulnerable rather than empowered,” Axa says. 

About 89% of experts and 72% of the general population agree insurers have an important role in protecting against future risks. 

The report is available here.