Concerns over global order and dangers such as cyber vulnerability have darkened business leaders’ immediate and long-term outlooks, according to an annual World Economic Forum survey.

About half of respondents – including experts from business, academia, government and civil society – anticipate a “turbulent” or “stormy” outlook over the next two years, and the figure rises to 57% when asked for a 10-year outlook. 

A further 40% expect an “unsettled” two years, and 32% say the same over the 10-year time frame. Only 1% anticipate calm across each time period.

Responses to the Global Risk Perception Survey are included in the WEF’s Global Risks Report.

“As co-operative mechanisms crumble, with governments retreating from multilateral frameworks, stability is under siege,” the report says.

“A contested multipolar landscape is emerging where confrontation is replacing collaboration, and trust – the currency of co-operation – is losing its value.”  

Geoeconomic confrontation is rated the risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis this year, cited by 18% of respondents and up two positions from last year’s ranking. Rounding out the top five risks are state-based armed conflict (14%), extreme weather (8%), societal polarisation (7%), misinformation and disinformation (7%) and economic downturn (5%).

The report says technological risks are growing largely unchecked. While advances in artificial intelligence and other tech have created new opportunities, there are downsides too.

“Going further, AI threatens something more intangible yet fundamental: the value of being human. As cognitive tasks, creative work and even social interaction get automated, it is unclear what remains distinctively human.”

Zurich and Marsh are strategic partners of the WEF and members of its global risks advisory board.

Marsh Risk specialty president Andrew George said: “As automation and quantum breakthroughs accelerate, government and business must work together to address the challenges created by role redundancy, economic concentration, and the potential for systemic disruptions in critical infrastructure and digital trust.”