Parts of Victoria, WA and central northern NSW face increased risk of bushfires this summer as long-term rainfall deficiencies persist in four states.

There are “abundant surface fuels” in some areas, according to the Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC).

“As the summer progresses, vegetation under prolonged hot dry spells will not take long to dry, leading to the increased risk of bushfire,” the council’s latest bushfire outlook says.  

“This is particularly the case in Victoria, where current green grass growth is likely to return to a highly flammable state in January.”

Long-term rainfall deficiencies persist in parts of southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and western WA.

In Victoria, a warmer than average summer is likely and AFAC says the “effects of long-term severe dryness is evident in the abundance of dead elevated vegetation within forests and heathy woodlands, which will rapidly turn to a highly flammable condition in January and February”.

It is highly likely a hot, dry pattern will cause a rapid switch in forest flammability, meaning significant fires are “a real possibility in January and February”.

Areas at risk include Victoria’s far southwest; the northern Otways; Mount Buangor State Park; Wombat State Forest and Central Highlands; the Mornington Peninsula and southwest Gippsland; north central including Kinglake and Yarra Ranges; and parts of Elidon.

In NSW, northern and central grasslands have high fuel loads and are drier than normal, and face an increased risk of fast-moving, intense grass and forest fires.

“Over spring, the forecast higher than average rainfall did not eventuate, leaving much of the landscape drier than expected heading into summer,” the report says. “Forecasts indicate a dry start to summer. With higher temperatures forecast and uncertain rainfall, these areas have the potential to support intense, fast-moving fires over summer.” 

In WA, there are high fuel loads in the Yalgoo and Geraldton Sandplains regions, while soil moisture deficits in parts of the state are driving increased bushfire risk in northern Swan Coastal Plain, Jarrah Forest, Esperance Plains and Mallee. 

An average fire risk is expected across northern WA. Most of Queensland is expected to experience normal to slightly elevated summer fire conditions.

Above-average day and overnight temperatures are expected for most of Australia over summer.

See the summer outlook here.