Widespread adoption of weight-loss drugs used in products such as Ozempic could reduce death rates in coming decades, reversing a trend of rising obesity that has stalled life expectancy progress across developed markets, Swiss Re says. 

The drugs could cut US cumulative all-cause mortality by 6.4% by 2045, while in the UK it could be as much as 5.1%, according to the reinsurer’s research, which focused on those markets given their high obesity rates and strong uptake of the medication. 

Swiss Re says in high-income countries, obesity is linked to seven of the 10 leading causes of death including ischemic heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease and many cancers.

“GLP-1 drugs could be the medical innovation we’ve been waiting for to reshape mortality trends,” head of life and health global underwriting, claims and research and development Natalie Kelly said. “The flow-on effect for underwriting assumptions and claims patterns could therefore be significant.”

The research’s most optimistic scenario depends on broad uptake of GLP-1 therapies and people adhering to treatment while making lifestyle changes. 

Studies have shown that without lifestyle changes, a rebound is common, with full weight regain possible within a year of patients discontinuing the drugs.

A pessimistic scenario, with limited uptake, high discontinuation rates – especially due to side effects – and widespread weight regain after treatment finishes could bring cumulative mortality reductions of 2.3% in the US and 1.8% for the UK.

Ms Kelly says it is essential that insurers stay on top of the GLP-1 shift and maintain a robust, evidence-based approach to assessing the risks.

The US has the developed world’s highest obesity rate, at more than 40% of the adult population. In the UK, about 30% of adults are obese.

Swiss Re CEO of life and health reinsurance Paul Murray says research shows the full benefits of the drugs will come from going beyond medication alone.

“As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention,” he said. “If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives.”