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Actuaries’ climate index reveals extreme change

The frequency of extreme weather conditions in autumn this year exceeded historical trends, with risks linked to higher temperatures and sea levels increasing.

That’s the finding of the first Australian Actuaries Climate Index, which measures how weather extremes and sea levels are being affected by climate change.

The Actuaries Institute expects the index will help insurers assess risks by determining if their frequency is changing. Its baseline period covers the years 1981-2010, and it will be updated quarterly as new data becomes available.

The index features a series of indices measuring changes in wind, rainfall, drought, temperature, sea level and consecutive dry days. It also shows wind levels remain broadly unchanged.

Although the index follows similar tools introduced in the US and Canada, the Actuaries Institute says it has implemented key changes to improve data quality.

Its baseline covers a more recent period and it uses a more extreme threshold for observations, providing a better link to risk. However, the index is based on only three component indices, rather than all six, because some data was not available or would have been overweighted.

The institute intends to develop more explicit indices measuring the risk of damage to property, health and excessive energy.

Finity Consulting Principal Tim Andrews says the index helps the industry understand that extreme weather and sea levels are changing. Finity helped collate the index using Bureau of Meteorology data.

Click here to see the index.