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Political risk rises in emerging nations

The emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa face increased political risk, according to Aon Risk Solutions.

They have all been downgraded on the broker’s political risk map, which examines 163 countries and territories, amid growing political violence, government interference and sovereign non-payment risk.

“The increase in political risk in some of the larger emerging-market countries has weakened long-term capital, increasing the risk of measures being introduced to retain capital that will impede transfers of funds/repatriation of assets,” Aon says.

The report says volatility in Ukraine is affecting former Soviet states. Russia, which faces economic policy deadlock, has been downgraded because of its annexation of Crimea.

“As fiscal balances weaken and default risks rise in countries such as Ukraine, along with foreign exchange pressure, corporations will see a change in certain sovereigns’ willingness and ability to pay,” Aon warns.

In Brazil, the Government’s increased role in the economy is of particular concern as this year’s World Cup and the 2016 Olympics approach.

China faces an increase in political violence at a time of sluggish growth, Aon says.

Legal and regulatory risks in India are elevated by corruption and moderately high levels of political interference, and South Africa is struggling amid recurrent strikes.