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Forecaster tips below-average Atlantic hurricane season

A below-average Atlantic hurricane season is expected this year, forecaster Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) says.

The prediction stems partly from the still-uncertain direction of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, which refers to warming of the central and eastern Pacific.

“Much of the uncertainty surrounds [the fact] sea surface temperatures immediately off the west coast of South America are currently among the warmest ever recorded, yet temperatures in the central Pacific are slightly below normal,” TSR says.

“[Our] best-guess estimate at this time is that weak to moderate El Nino conditions will be present by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. These conditions usually have a negative influence on cyclogenesis [storm formation].”

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

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