Aon Benfield subsidiary Impact Forecasting says first-half global economic and insured disaster losses were well below average – but it warns the worst could lie ahead.

Economic losses to June 30 totalled $US54 billion ($57.23 billion), about 49% down on the 10-year average to 2013.

Insured losses were $US22 billion ($23.32 billion), 19% below average.

Meteorologist Steve Bowen says a slow first half does not necessarily signal a quiet year overall.

“For the insurance industry, the third quarter historically has been the costliest quarter, most notably because of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.”

It is only a matter of time before the US endures another major hurricane, he says.

“We also have a developing El Nino, which will increasingly have an impact on global losses.”

The costliest first-half events were severe snowstorms that hit Japan in February, killing 95 people. They caused economic losses of $US6.25 billion ($6.62 billion) and insured losses of $US2.5 billion ($2.65 billion).

Flooding in southern and eastern Europe in May caused 80 deaths and economic losses of $US4.5 billion ($4.77 billion), while a drought in Brazil cost the economy $US4.3 billion ($4.56 billion).

More than half of insured losses were sustained in the US, while Europe was the only region to record above-normal insured losses.