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Lloyd’s devises new approach to assess risks

Lloyd’s and modelling company Arium have developed a data-driven methodology that improves insurers and reinsurers’ ability to assess risk exposures.

The tool uses building blocks, or “shapes”, to map loss scenarios and categorise casualty events based on a company’s activities that may be affected by all classes of risk.

“This is a tremendously exciting development,” Lloyd’s Performance Management Director Jon Hancock said. “It is in everybody’s interest to classify liability risks as accurately as possible, and this methodology represents a real step forward for the industry.”

Hidden risks that could disrupt operations can also be identified using stochastic modelling of liability accumulation risk.

Data from previous high-profile events was used to develop the building blocks, including the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, the Takata airbag recall, the Target payment card breach and Sony PlayStation hacks.

A methodology paper says the new approach “provides a new, structured way of analysing casualty events, regardless of risk classification”.

“Many different scenarios can be modelled using a handful of shape types, where each type can be characterised according to the parameters of the loss event,” the paper says.

“Breaking liability risk modelling down into blocks, which mirrors the way in which natural catastrophe risks are divided into region-perils, makes it easier to carry out the modelling.”

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