The US storm clouds linger

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31 May 2010

As if a record $19 billion first-quarter catastrophe bill wasn’t enough, global insurers will now be sweating over forecasts of a particularly active Atlantic hurricane season that begins tomorrow.

In a pre-season outlook report, expert forecasting body Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has predicted a total of 16 tropical storms with eight hurricanes including four severe events.

Five tropical storms are expected to make landfall on the US, including two hurricanes.

“At present every main indicator points to hurricane activity being well above norm in 2010,” TSR said last week.

In a typical year, around 10 storms develop in the Atlantic, including six hurricanes and three severe events.

To put it simply, coastal areas of the US could experience a torrid time between now and November 30, which is when the Atlantic hurricane season officially ends.

Unfortunately for insurers, the weather researchers’ track record for accuracy is sound. TSR’s pre-season outlooks correctly anticipated the active 2004, 2005 and 2008 hurricane seasons in addition to the quiet season enjoyed by insurers last year.

Hurricanes Katrina, Ike and Rita remain fresh in the minds of major US insurers and coastal residents alike as the next active hurricane season looms.

Of the locally listed insurers, only QBE has a significant exposure in the US, where the company gets 36% of its gross earned premium. However, hurricanes aren’t exactly an unknown quantity, with QBE factoring a certain amount of losses and reinsurance into its allowances.

“On the balance of probability you’d watch QBE closely, if a big storm reaches landfall,” Credit Suisse analyst Arjan van Veen told insuranceNEWS.com.au. “It does have a lot of exposure.”

Already this year natural catastrophes have cost a record $US16 billion ($19.4 billion) in the first quarter alone, according to reinsurer Willis Re. If the hurricane forecasts are borne out, we could be heading for a record catastrophe year during a period when insurer profits are at far from peak levels.

Lloyd’s CEO Richard Ward outlined the global peril for insurers in a speech he delivered in London earlier this month, when he warned that Lloyd’s record profit of almost £4 billion ($6.8 billion) last year was no guarantee of a return to profitability this year.

Warning that low investment returns and weakening rates present a “significant challenge for the industry worldwide”, Mr Ward suggested that one serious catastrophe could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, wiping out the entire underwriting profit from last year.

But Mr van Veen warns against placing too much reliance on storm forecasting alone. Like forecasts for weather and economics, storm predictions aren’t always right; and even when they are, there may not be much of any value sitting in harm’s way.

Mr Ward says the challenge is at least one “we can see coming and can prepare for”.

“Insurers who keep their discipline and don’t chase risky short-term profit will stand the best chance of long-term survival,” he told delegates in London.

Fortunately for QBE, that describes the Australian insurer in a nutshell. Mr van Veen points to a QBE market release in April that showed the insurer’s resilience in the face of a host of natural catastrophes.

Despite the effect of nat cats such as the Haiti earthquake, Chile earthquake and storms in Melbourne and Perth, QBE had by that point incurred only $470 million of a $1.28 billion allowance for large risk and catastrophe claims in 2010.

QBE Group CEO Frank O’Halloran spoke of an available allowance of around $810 million for the remainder of 2010, indicating the insurer will remain well insulated from the US hurricane season should losses remain within reasonable allowances.

“To put this into perspective, estimated large risk and catastrophe claims for the last eight months of 2009 amounted to a net $485 million,” he said.

With its reputation for fiscal rectitude thus far intact, it seems that only a deeply catastrophic event will disturb the Australian insurer’s calm.